There’s another long and interesting strategic analysis from Stratfor. It reads Osama bin Laden’s recent statement as reflecting an overall gloomy situation for al-Qaida. Here’s a central passage about the situation in Iraq:
To understand bin Laden’s mood, it is important to look at the war from a strategic standpoint. The United States mounted an effective invasion of Iraq, using Kuwait as a base of operations, and with the overt or covert cooperation of all other contiguous Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia. The United States was surprised by the coherence and tempo of operations of the Iraqi guerrillas, but the insurrection never moved outside the country’s Sunni areas in any substantial way and therefore was confined to a relatively small part of Iraq. Even in this region, after several months of indecisive and ineffective action, the United States mounted a counteroffensive after Ramadan that resulted in a substantial decline in guerrilla operations north of Baghdad, and a much less intense tempo of operations in Baghdad and to the west.
Iraq’s internal politics also have moved in an unsatisfactory direction [from al-Qaida’s point of view – NG]. The majority Shia, in a vague alliance with the Kurds, have not so much supported the United States as opposed the Sunnis. They also have no use for the foreign jihadists moving into Iraq. They are prepared to cooperate with the Americans, exchanging support now for control of the government later. The Sunni sheikhs, observing the deterioration of the guerrillas’ military situation, are repositioning themselves, making deals with the Americans. The prospect of Shiite domination without any U.S. goodwill cushioning that process is more frightening to the Sunnis than the guerrilla movement. Therefore, the Baathist guerrilla movement is under severe pressure, while the foreign jihadists operating without the Baathists have no roots in Iraq, nor does the Sunni leadership welcome them. Therefore, al Qaeda’s hope of bogging down the United States in Iraq as they bogged down the Soviets in Afghanistan is disappearing.
The piece goes on to discuss regional and global aspects, and says:
At the moment, nothing is going al Qaeda’s way. That does not mean al Qaeda is defeated. The war isn’t over ’til it’s over, and as the United States is showing in Iraq, reversals in war are common; the measure of victory is how quickly and effectively one adjusts to the reality and creates a new strategy. Al Qaeda has clearly lost the first round; it is readying for the second.
This analysis is offered as a sample, so I don’t know how long it will be up. (Hat tip: JA.)